President Bush is planning a 7:00 p.m. address to the nation tonight on the subject of .... illegal immigration.

Surely my last post laying out the political dangers for Republicans on the border security issue was not the primary reason for the President's decision to address the nation.

On the other hand ... frankly, my friends ... I suppose it is quite possible that my post was indeed the instigating factor behind the President's speech.

In fact, if someone were to conclude that such a link between my post and the President's speech is highly likely ... I would be hard-pressed to argue they were wrong.

At any rate ... expect the President to make some overtures toward conservatives ... perhaps announcing an expanded National Guard presence on the border.

It is possible that the President has had the political equivalent of a deathbed conversion ... and will lay out a strong plan of border security, and will back off the amnesty notion until the border is secured.

More likely, any new border security measures will be half-hearted ... e.g., the number of new National Guard troops on the border is minimal, and they are only allowed to assist as file clerks and dishwashers.

If so, the speech could do more harm than good.

Oh, and if the President is wise, there are a couple of his pet phrases he will leave out of this speech altogether:

"... to do the jobs Americans won't do"  (Makes American workers sound lazy.)

"we are a nation of immigrants"  (Makes no distinction between legal and illegal immigration.)

I will close with the same phrase I used to close my earlier, now famous, post ... the post that by the reckoning of many observers provided the impetus for tonight's speech:

This is still a volatile situation.

Can it be that I have not posted since February?

The days have passed quickly ... though I am sure for my loyal readers it has seemed a near eternity.

To be left adrift in the sea of vapid words spewed by the thousands of second-rate commentators infesting the political scene ... it must have been a painful experience for you, my dear reader.

Two observations:

Observation #1:  The Supreme Court

Regarding my most recent Astonishingly Accurate Prediction ... Washington rumors point ever more strongly to the impending resignation of Justice Stevens from the Supreme Court at the end of the current term (next month). 

For instance, a ConfimThem.com commenter who calls himself "Insider," and who has provided helpful information in the past, indicates that his sources consider it all but a done deal. 

Interestingly enough, he notes that Justice Souter is also looking to retire soon ... and probably would himself retire at the end of this term were not Stevens retiring. 

All this of course is rapturous news for conservatives if true.

It also (though this is by no means my motive in alluding to it) attests to the accuracy of what your humble correspondent promised you over two months ago in Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6.

Observation #2:  The November Elections

Anxious political pros are no doubt refreshing this page several times a day waiting for the Squid take on the November congressional elections.

I am not in a position to make a solid prediction at this point because of the volatility of the illegal immigration issue. 

The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Republicans will be smitten with disaster this fall ... with the possibility that the Democrats will gain control of the House and/or Senate. 

I am by no means certain this is correct. In fact a Republican gain in the Senate is not improbable.

But the wild card is the illegal immigration issue. Washington politicians are just now waking up to the depth of feeling on this issue, particularly in the Republican base. 

If Republicans ignore the base ... and continue down the road toward the Bush/McCain/Kennedy "guest worker" abomination, which essentially constitutes amnesty for illegals while giving an empty nod toward border security ... they may indeed have a date with disaster this November.

Friends, it is difficult to overstate how passionately many conservatives feel on this issue.  If you doubt this, I suggest you spend time on conservative forums on the Web or tune in to conservative talk radio ... especially local shows where the conversation is less filtered.

For many grass roots conservatives this is not just an "issue" to be debated ... but a threat to the future of America as we know it.

Seeing the illegals take to the streets in third-world style demonstrations ... brandishing flags of Mexico and other Latino nations ... only strengthens the perception that the American culture is in jeopardy from the invasion of millions of lawbreakers who have no real desire to assimilate.

This is not to mention the threat to national security of having unsecured borders in a time of war.

Being labeled bigots or xenophobes only increases the anger of grass roots conservatives ... who are used to such epithets being spewed by Democrats ... but not used to being labeled such by the out-of-touch elites in their own party.

I assure you, my friends, this tide of anger is well capable of toppling the Republican majority if it continues to be ignored inside the Beltway.

Fortunately, the past few weeks have seen a measure of awakening among Washington Republicans ... but this remains a volatile situation.

Greetings, dear friends.

You might like to peruse the following column by well-connected conservative, Paul Weyrich:

Rumors of a Third Nominee to the Supreme Court

Weyrich notes a "rumor which absolutely has swept the Nation’s Capitol since the swearing-in of Justice Samuel J. Alito, Jr." 

He continues:

That rumor is that President George W. Bush will have another vacancy on the Supreme Court when the term ends this coming June.

One Senator claims he has specific knowledge that the vacancy is coming. The speculation revolves around 85-year-old Associate Justice John Paul Stevens.

Now I ask, dear readers, what could have transpired to cause such a rumor to sweep the Capitol?

Since vanity and self-congratulations are not in my nature, I hesitate to think that my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6 could have been the source of this Beltway buzz.

Yet it is difficult to come to any other conclusion.

As for the Senator who claims "specific knowledge that the vacancy is coming" ... please be assured I am not upset that he fails to attribute this information to me.

It merely reaffirms what is indeed no secret ... that Senators and their staffs are frequent visitors to this space. 

Knowing that distinguished elected officials speak and act in reliance on information offered here is far from being a source of pride to me.

Rather, it contributes to a sense of profound humility.

Well, loyal readers, here is my latest prediction ... one that will send White House and Capitol Hill aides scurrying to their keyboards and cell phones ...

Mortimus Squid's Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6:

There will be another Supreme Court vacancy this year ... and the resignation will be from the Court's liberal wing ... most likely Stevens or Souter. 

Yes, my friends, and the resulting confirmation hearings will be high drama as this could be the pick that radically alters the balance on the Court.

I am not unaware that top staff in the White House regularly monitor this space ... and even now they are likely re-studying their short list of nominees in light of my prediction.

That short list no doubt includes the following names (in approximate order of likelihood):

Karen Williams

Miguel Estrada

Maureen Mahoney

Michael McConnell

Consuelo Callahan

Diane Sykes

My friends, the last thing I would ever desire to do is to engage in unseemly gloating when my analysis proves to be fully, precisely, and uncannily accurate.

But as much as humility bids me remain silent, in the interest of journalistic integrity I feel compelled to remind the reading audience of my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #4:

Samuel Alito will be confirmed by the Senate.  He will receive less than 60 votes, but there will be no Democrat filibuster.

I hesitate to point out (lest it somehow bring unwanted credit to your humble correspondent) that there are three predictions rolled into this single statement ...

(1) Samuel Alito will be confirmed.

(2) He will receive less than 60 votes.

(3) There will be no Democrat filibuster.

... and that all three of these predictions were fulfilled precisely.

And when one recalls that this prediction was made ... not on the eve of the vote ... not after the Committee hearings ... but on the 4th of December ... 

Well, dear friends, my duty as a journalist notwithstanding, I must desist from this line of thought lest I seem to be tooting my own horn.

But I shall return shortly with another prediction ... this one perhaps more breathtaking in its audacity than any of those preceding it.

There is weeping and gnashing of teeth in Democrat land tonight.

High hopes of derailing the nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court have evaporated over three days of questioning.

Alito's quiet, monotone answers have exuded competence and decency.

There was no "gotcha" moment. 

The Democrat inquisitors were unable to recreate the drama of the Bork or Thomas hearings. Instead, they were reduced to berating Judge Alito over historical trivia and shamelessly insinuating that he is a bigot at heart.

And they made Mrs. Alito cry.

Soccer moms across the nation, who could care less about Concerned Alumni of Princeton, the unitary executive, or recusal in the Vangard case, woke up to see Mrs. Alito's tearful face on the front page of this morning's USA Today. 

The blandness and faux politeness with which Democrats questioned Alito today told the story ... they finally realized they were in process of driving off a political cliff.

It's over.

There will be no filibuster. There will be no Bork II.

Justice Alito can order his robe. 

The Christmas (er ... Holiday/Kwanzaa/Winter Solstice/Multi-Religious-Days-of-Significance) season is not a particularly dynamic time for political developments.

There will be little happening in the Alito nomination until the first of the year ... then all hell (er ... insert your religion's place, state or idea of retributive justice or self-questioning reflection) will break loose.

The remembrance that I have already predicted the good judge's confirmation should add a measure of peace to your Holiday/Kwanzaa/Winter Solstice/Multi-Religious-Days-of-Significance season.

In presidential politics, I notice that Mitt Romney has declined to stand for reelection as Massachusetts governor ... a further indication that he will be a candidate for the 2008 Republican nomination.

Romney is perhaps the one candidate who has the capacity to disrupt the carefully crafted predictions laid out in my now famous four-post series on the Republican nomination.

To do so, and become a Tier 1 candidate, he must tack hard right on the social issues and adopt the "I-know-I-looked-like-a-squishy-moderate-but-I-was-trying-to-govern-a-state-that-made-the-old-Soviet-Union-look-conservative" defense.

Romney is an impressive candidate and delivered one of the very best speeches at the 2004 Republican Convention.

My choice for the 2008 nomination, Virginia's George Allen, is profiled in this Newsweek article, which examines the intriguing possibility of an all-Virginia election in November 2008.

Please, my friends, attend to your shopping and family obligations with a mind at ease ... knowing that if there are any political developments worth noting over the holidays, I will surely note them.

In the meantime, I trust that Santa Claus (or your chosen semi-mythical, benevolent holiday gift-bearing icon) will deposit the finest presents around your tree (or bush, pole, zuggernaut, African ritual heap, Mother Gaia likeness, or other religious, secular, or philosophical vertical item).

Oh, and one more thing....

May the Lord Jesus Christ ... the only begotten Son of the one true God ... the one Mediator between God and man ... the only hope for a fallen world ... bless you richly as we celebrate His incarnation as the virgin-born Savior.

One of the joys of being an influential commentator is receiving emails from appreciative readers.

Such as this one:

So you would find it "refreshing" to be wrong for a change, would you? Yeah right, you pompous, bloviating windbag.  What about your Astonishingly Stupid Prediction #2 that Karen Williams would be the Supreme Court nominee? I don't see anyone named Williams preparing for confirmation hearings, do you? Huh?

I must confess that my Williams pick was less correct than I had envisioned.

But that's not to say it was wrong.

I wonder if my dear readers have considered the possibility that Karen Williams was indeed the President's original choice ... and that my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #2 was the very factor that caused the President to switch to someone else?

Given the President's love of surprise choices, that scenario grows more plausible the more one considers it.

Then, too, consider that Williams may yet be picked by the President to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg, if she retires in the next year or two.

If a man predicts that a particular event is going to occur, is his prediction incorrect just because it occurs tomorrow instead of today?

But while I disagree with the correspondent's contention that the Williams pick was a failure on my part ... I do appreciate the congenial spirit in which he writes.

(Although I am still trying to discern whether "pompous, bloviating windbag" was intended as a compliment, or whether it was meant to bear a slightly negative connotation.)

I have sometimes been accused of gloating over those occasions when my commentary proves correct, while ignoring the occasions when it does not.

Nothing, my friends, could be further from the truth.

On the contrary, it is tiresome (and decidedly against the grain of a naturally humble and retiring personality) to find myself continually rehashing a string of successes.

I assure you, I would regard a failed prediction or off-target observation as a refreshing break from the monotony.

Nonetheless, I am forced to report to you today that my latest analysis on the 2008 Republican Nomination has already begun to pile up testimonials to its prescient accuracy.

For instance, in an article almost certainly influenced by my analysis of why Mayor Giuliani cannot win the nomination, Newsday is now reporting:

Giuliani in '08 might be an uphill battle against McCain

Wittmann is just one of many McCainiacs questioning the viability of a Giuliani candidacy.... They argue that the former mayor's liberal positions on abortion (he favors abortion rights), guns (he's for strict controls) and gay rights (he drew heat from conservatives for once living with a gay couple and implemented New York's landmark domestic partnership law) put him far to the left of McCain and most GOP primary voters.

"In my humble opinion, Rudy wouldn't get out of the gate," said longtime McCain strategist John Dennehy.

[Click link above for the full article.]

Also, Patrick Hynes has this article up at RealClearPolitics.com:

Beltway Conservatives Take Second Look at McCain

Not only is John McCain the clear frontrunner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, but many beltway conservatives are beginning to accept the inevitability of a McCain-run party.

According to several sources in Washington, DC – all of whom have, at times said things drastically critical of the Arizona Senator in my presence – McCain is the GOP’s only hope in the post-Bush era.

[Click link above for the full article.]

I would not be so vain as to presume that the classic four-post series presented here over the weekend was the catalyst that has caused Republicans to "take a second look" at McCain.

Nor would I be so naive as to presume it was not.  

My loyal readers, the four posts below form a veritable Squid's Viewers Guide to the 2008 Republican Nomination.

It is questionable whether such a quantity and quality of information has ever been contained in a four-post stretch in the history of political blogging.

To coin a phrase (displaying once again the trademark Squid sense of humor) ... it is mind bloggling.

These posts will flow most cogently if you begin at the bottom and work your way up ... but a top down perusal is permitted as well.

If you encounter sluggish system performance, do not be alarmed. 

All of official Washington, as well as political operatives across the country, will no doubt be attempting to access this site over the next few days.

Yes, my good friends, there are but two candidates that have a possibility of winning the Republican nomination.

Mortimus Squid's Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #5:

The 2008 Republican nominee for president will be either Senator John McCain from Arizona or Senator George Allen from Virginia.

John McCain - Arizona Senator. 

Many believe McCain is too unpopular with Republican conservatives to win the nomination. Indeed, McCain has over the years seemed to go out of his way to alienate the Republican base, and there are many who have sworn never to vote for him. 

However, I believe it is possible that McCain may cobble together enough votes to win from three groups: 

(1) Those who see the war on terror as dwarfing all other issues. McCain has been a stout advocate of the vigorous prosecution of that war. He has been a faithful supporter of the President on Iraq ... and some would say, better at explaining to the American people the stakes of the conflict than the President has been.

(2) Those who see beating Hillary as dwarfing all other issues.  With McCain they get a candidate with tremendous popular appeal among centrists and independents, without the sell-out of pro-life prinicple that would be required to embrace Condi or Rudy.

(3) Those who see keeping a pro-abortion candidate off the Republican ticket as dwarfing all other issues. If Giuliani continues to poll strongly as we enter the primary season ... or if Condi has thrown her hat in the ring and is surging ... there will be trememndous pressure on pro-lifers to quickly coalesce around a candidate who can keep the nomination from falling into pro-abortion hands.

McCain, for all that conservatives despise about him, has managed to keep intact a consistent pro-life position. Most pro-lifers doubt the depth of his conviction on the issue, but there is no doubt he has been a reliable pro-life vote over the years.

Senator McCain will be, to borrow a biblical phrase, "well-stricken in years" by the time the 2008 election rolls around. He'll turn 72 years old in August 2008 ... which would make him the oldest first term president ever.

This could well be a disadvantage, but in my humble opinion, McCain could turn it into a positive by pledging to be a one-term president ... a courageous reformer unfettered by polls, political calculations, and the need to seek reelection.

George Allen - Virginia Senator and former Virginia Governor

Senator Allen is currently mired in single digits in polls of Republican voters ... but that will not stand for long.

Allen is uniquely positioned in the race ... assuming he runs, which is almost certain ... and at this point rates as the Squid pick for the nomination.

He is viewed by some as a Reagan-esque figure ... tall and athletic, with a down home charm and ability to connect with the average voter. Cowboy boots, smokeless tobacco, and a father who was a legendary NFL coach enhance the down to earth, manly appeal.

Allen is very well-liked by conservatives, and his success will depend on getting himself positioned early as the conservative alternative to Giuliani and McCain ... and Rice if she runs.

His cause will be helped if at least two of that trifecta run ... since they will split the moderate and establishment Republican vote.

His potential rivals on the right ... such as Santorum or Brownback ... are perhaps too conservative and too closely identified with the Christian right. Republicans and Christian conservatives have found mutual electoral success in settling on (as in the case of George W. Bush) candidates who are not members of the Christian right, but allies of the Christian right.

Allen fits that bill perfectly ... a definite ally of Christian conservatives on most issues, but not so closely identified that secular-minded moderates are frightened away.

If the contest should boil down to McCain vs. Allen, Allen would assuredly be the conservatives' darling. This despite the ironic fact that McCain has maintained a more consistent pro-life position than has Allen ... who a decade ago suggested that perhaps abortion should not be illegal in the very early stages of pregnancy, prior to brain wave activity on the part of the infant.

Allen will have to clarify this position ... and I suspect he will abandon it. His pro-life credentials in the Senate have been sterling, and no one really doubts that he would be more likely to appoint true-blue, anti-Roe conservatives to the courts than would McCain.

Yes, I believe Allen will emerge as the mainstream conservative alternative in the primaries ... and since conservative voters tend to dominate the primaries, he stands an excellent chance of carrying the Republican banner in 2008.

Allen is admittedly a bit untested in the bright glare of the national spotlight. He could yet prove to be not ready for prime time. If he stumbles, the path will be clear for McCain.

These are the candidates who would be regarded as serious contenders (the early polls are largely dominated by names on this list) but who in the final analysis cannot win.

Mitt Romney - Massachusetts governor.  Romney would be a formidable candidate ... very photogenic and articulate. He will not be able to overcome two factors:  (1) He is a Mormon. Members of that faith are increasingly regarded as mainstream in American society, but in my opinion Romney's religion would be a net negative among Republican primary voters ... not because of religious bigotry so much as discomfort with the unknown.  (2) He has a muddled record on the abortion issue ... poison to Republican primary voters.

Rudy Giuliani - Former New York mayor. Yes, I am fully aware that Giuliani is the leader in most of the early polling among Republican voters. Giuliani as the Republican nominee would be a dream come true ... for the Constitution Party. There would be an immediate doubling or tripling of the CP membership as pro-life, pro-family voters abandoned the Republican Party like sailors leaping from a burning ship. Even fear of the proverbial monster in the closet, Hillary Clinton, could not induce Christian conservatives to line up behind a pro-abortion, pro-homosexual, pro-gun control liberal like Giuliani. Fortunately, that dilemma will not come to pass. When this matter is taken out of the arena of name recognition and bogus polls and placed in the hands of actual Republican primary voters, Giuliani's support will collapse. Or does my dear reader think that those pictures of the good mayor cross dressing at homosexual functions in Manhattan will endear him to church going, grassroots conservatives in Iowa and South Carolina?

Condoleeza Rice - Secretary of State. An intriguing possibility, though Rice has denied any interest in running. Many Republicans are enamored with her because of her undoubted star power and the delicious thought of confronting the Democrats in 2008 with a black female Republican nominee. Rice would indeed be a formidable candidate in the general election, but she will never have that chance. She has declared herself "mildly pro-choice" on abortion ... which translates to being "mildly" in favor of allowing innocent unborn babies to be ripped limb from limb. Thankfully, pro-abortion candidates tend to fare miserably in the Republican primaries, and if one ever did capture the nomination it would permanently splinter the Republican coalition. Add Condoleeza Rice to the Constitution Party's wish list for Republican nominee. You may mark it down, my friends, if Mayor Giuliani or Secretary Rice were somehow able to secure the nomination ... I, Mortimus Q. Squid, would the very next day be plying my considerable influence in favor of a third party choice ... Hillary or no Hillary.

Bill Frist - Senate Majority Leader. Were it not for his lofty position in Beltway circles, Frist would have found his place with the dwarves in Tier 3. Has a compelling life story ... but why would Republicans wish to nominate someone who comes across as stiff and uncharismatic ... someone whose main claim to fame is as leader of the inept Republican majority in the Senate?  His one big asset, a close relationship with Christian conservatives, he squandered by breaking with President Bush and supporting federally funded infant stem cell research ... i.e., forcing pro-lifers to pay for "research" they find morally repugnant.

Newt Gingrich - Former Speaker of the House.  Included in Tier 2 only out of respect for his past accomplishments and stature among the Republican faithful. No chance of competing seriously for the nomination ... damaged goods ... highly unpopular among the electorate at large. Plus (while I realize not everyone can be blessed with a distinguished, euphonic name such as my own) the name Gingrich calls to mind stolen Christmases and other Seuss-esque calamities.

Jeb Bush - Florida governor.  The President's brother is indeed presidential material in his own right. However, Americans would surely balk at the thought of three Bushes out of the last four presidents. Knowing this, Jeb almost certainly will not run, and if he did, Republicans would reluctantly pass him by.

In no particular order, here are the "dwarves" that have been mentioned as potential candidates but who simply cannot contend seriously for the Republican nomination.

Mike Huckabee - Arkansas governor.  Good man ... but is America ready for a former Southern Baptist preacher with a name like Huckabee in the White House?  I think not.

Haley Barbour - Mississippi governor.  Not particularly photogenic ... has a Southern accent so thick it sounds like Gomer Pyle with a mouthful of Mississippi river gravel ... has some lobbyist baggage.

Tom Tancredo - Colorado congressman.  May cause a brief firestorm in the early primaries and force his pet issue, illegal immigration, onto the table. But cannot be considered a serious candidate.

Rick Santorum - Pennsylvania senator.  May well be ex-Senator Santorum by this time next year, as he is an underdog to win reelection. Is too controversial a figure. Nice looking, but lacks presidential gravitas.

Sam Brownback - Kansas senator.  Like Santorum, is probably too conservative and too closely tied to the Christian right to win the nomination. Not well known nationally.

Mike Pence - Indiana congressman.  A rising star ... could find quite a following from conservatives if he could get some exposure ... but is untested and lacks the resume expected of a serious presidential candidate.

Mark Sanford - South Carolina governor. A favorite of fiscal conservatives. Not well-known nationally. Could be veep material.

Dear friends, it might be thought incredible that over two years before the start of the 2008 Republican primary season your humble correspondent would undertake to predict the outcome.

The fact is, I have been prepared for some time to make the following predictions.

It is due to my reluctance to humiliate other pundits that I have refrained from offering this analysis till now.

And I would forbear even further, did it not pain me to see other analysts muddling along, wasting gallons of misguided ink on this or that potential candidate... naming supposed favorites based on early polls of Republican voters.

I am happy, my dear readers, to greatly simplify the national discourse on this subject by revealing the following astonishing fact:

There are only two persons who can possibly capture the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

You may ask, how can I, Mortimus Squid, be privy to such astonishing information ... at a stage where most prognosticators are still debugging their failed predictions from the last presidential election?

It is elementary, actually ... the common process of elimination, carried out with uncommon care and skill.

Allow me to approach the matter as follows:

(1) I will identify the "dwarves"  ... the third tier of potential nominees, who not only cannot win, but who could never actually be in serious contention.

(2) I will discuss the "giants" who cannot win ... those candidates who have the star power, the potential fund-raising prowess, and the resume to leave large footprints on the race ... but who cannot in the end win.

(3) I will name the two candidates that have a possibility of winning the nomination ... one of whom will be the Republican nominee in 2008.

Since this post is becoming a bit lengthy, I will begin in a new post.

To the consternation of those who hang eagerly upon the wisdom dispensed via this blog, I have been unable to comment recently.

This is largely because my poor assistant ... whose bland name ("Mark" something or other) matches his altogether unremarkable intellect and ability ... has been tied up with more trival endeavors.

It is an irony of history that the activity of great men has often been held captive by the indolence and inability of small men.

But I digress.

The reader need not fear that my lack of comment betokens a lack of profound attention to the issues of the day.

Never one to lag behind the curve, I have been devoting much thought to the next presidential election ... though it remains almost three years away.

Very shortly, I will announce to my faithful readers the names of the only two candidates that have a possibility of winning the Republican nomination in 2008.

Meanwhile, there are some loose ends relative to the Alito Supreme Court nomination:

Mortimus Squid's Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #4:

Samuel Alito will be confirmed by the Senate.  He will receive less than 60 votes, but there will be no Democrat filibuster.

This morning the President announced Samuel A. Alito as his choice to replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court.

Alito has a sterling reputation both for brilliance and for conservatism.

His selection should largely repair the damage the President incurred with his conservative base by the choice of Harriet Miers.

As you may recall, Alito appeared in Group B on Squid Viewer's Guide.  I said then that if a Group B nominee were chosen:

"Conservatives rejoice ... the Republican base is energized ... liberals gear up for serious battle. All of these would likely be confirmed, depending on how the hearings go ... Democratic filibuster is very possible, but not certain."

As is my wont (if I may say so in all humility) I scored a direct hit with this prediction ... judging by the initial reaction from both the Republican and Democrat sides.

... per Fox News.

The Supreme Court announcement could come as early as this evening, or as late as Monday or Tuesday.

Some observers think that Samuel Alito is a done deal.

Others sources say that Michael Luttig is still in the running ... and Michael McConnell is still mentioned by some.

There is even some buzz that the President might reach up to Group A on the Squid Viewer's Guide and pick Edith Hollan Jones or Janice Rogers Brown ... and start World War III.

Conservative hopes are so high now that if the President picks a moderate squish like Maureen Mahoney or Consuelo Callahan ... consequences will be severe.

We shall see.

... is expected today or Monday.

Naturally, with the withdrawal of Miers, my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #2 (the Karen Williams pick) is back on the table.

I must say ... and I can anticipate the collective gasp of my dear readers to hear this ... I no longer expect my Karen Williams pick to come to pass ... nor do I desire it to do so.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Williams could still be the choice. But the conservative rebellion against the Miers pick has changed the facts on the ground since last we discussed this.

Unless the White House has less political sense than your average doorpost, they will feel the need to choose someone that the conservative base will heartily embrace.

Karen Williams would not cause a conservative rebellion, but neither would she unite and energize the base the way other nominees could.

I strongly suggest, my dear friends, that you scroll down and shake the dust off the Squid Viewer's Guide as we await the President's announcement.

The same names are in play again. I would suggest that the reader focus on the "Group B" names (especially Luttig and Alito) along with selected names from "Group C" (Sykes, McConnell, Batchelder ... and yes, possibly Karen Williams).

There has been a strong buzz this morning for Samuel Alito ... who has been branded "Scalito" ("little Scalia"). 

Alito would be considered a home run pick by most conservatives ... and all would be forgiven with the President for the Miers debacle.

Also, add one name to Group B of the Viewer's Guide.  Christopher Cox, a former Congressman from California, has gotten some buzz ... although he remains an unlikely choice.

Cox would be a scintillating pick ... a strong conservative who, if he were better known, could easily belong in Group A.

Squid's best counsel ... watch Alito, Luttig, McConnell, Sykes ... in that order.

And keep in mind, the President delights in being unpredictable.

Washington, D.C. was stunned this morning by Harriet Miers' sudden withdrawal of her nomination to the Supreme Court.

Naturally this did not come as a surprise to the readers of this blog, since the scenario played out to the letter as predicted in Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #3 and the follow-up post.

In spite of the storm of conservative protest, it was beginning to look as though the nomination would survive at least till the hearings ... and that your humble correspondent might have to come before you, my compassionate readers, to own up to a rare failure of his uncanny instincts.

But as it turns out, my only error was in supposing that my prediction might possibly fail.

Yesterday, the text of a 1993 speech by Miss Miers was made public by the Washington Post.  This speech before a feminist audience struck a tone that no pro-lifer would be comfortable with ... and in fact it appeared to be rather clearly pro-choice.

The Post article (linked here) turned out to be the final, fatal tap on the tottering house of cards that was the Miers nomination.

It was enough to persuade many conservatives who were hitherto neutral or in favor of the nomination that Miss Miers could not be trusted on the Court.

Among those persuaded was Dr. James Dobson, an early and key supporter of Miss Miers.

By late last night it was apparent that the nomination was doomed and that there was nothing to be gained by pursuing it further.

Thus came to pass Miss Miers withdrawal this morning and the President's "reluctant" acceptance of her withdrawal ... precisely as predicted in Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #3.

I trust the reader will understand that gloating is not in my nature.  

I only report the facts of my fulfilled prediction in the spirit of accuracy and full disclosure.

My readers may be confident that, in the unlikely event of a prediction of mine failing, I would report such fully and in the same disinterested and professional tone.

Meanwhile, I shall soon post some thoughts on Miss Miers' replacement.