These are the candidates who would be regarded as serious contenders (the early polls are largely dominated by names on this list) but who in the final analysis cannot win.

Mitt Romney - Massachusetts governor.  Romney would be a formidable candidate ... very photogenic and articulate. He will not be able to overcome two factors:  (1) He is a Mormon. Members of that faith are increasingly regarded as mainstream in American society, but in my opinion Romney's religion would be a net negative among Republican primary voters ... not because of religious bigotry so much as discomfort with the unknown.  (2) He has a muddled record on the abortion issue ... poison to Republican primary voters.

Rudy Giuliani - Former New York mayor. Yes, I am fully aware that Giuliani is the leader in most of the early polling among Republican voters. Giuliani as the Republican nominee would be a dream come true ... for the Constitution Party. There would be an immediate doubling or tripling of the CP membership as pro-life, pro-family voters abandoned the Republican Party like sailors leaping from a burning ship. Even fear of the proverbial monster in the closet, Hillary Clinton, could not induce Christian conservatives to line up behind a pro-abortion, pro-homosexual, pro-gun control liberal like Giuliani. Fortunately, that dilemma will not come to pass. When this matter is taken out of the arena of name recognition and bogus polls and placed in the hands of actual Republican primary voters, Giuliani's support will collapse. Or does my dear reader think that those pictures of the good mayor cross dressing at homosexual functions in Manhattan will endear him to church going, grassroots conservatives in Iowa and South Carolina?

Condoleeza Rice - Secretary of State. An intriguing possibility, though Rice has denied any interest in running. Many Republicans are enamored with her because of her undoubted star power and the delicious thought of confronting the Democrats in 2008 with a black female Republican nominee. Rice would indeed be a formidable candidate in the general election, but she will never have that chance. She has declared herself "mildly pro-choice" on abortion ... which translates to being "mildly" in favor of allowing innocent unborn babies to be ripped limb from limb. Thankfully, pro-abortion candidates tend to fare miserably in the Republican primaries, and if one ever did capture the nomination it would permanently splinter the Republican coalition. Add Condoleeza Rice to the Constitution Party's wish list for Republican nominee. You may mark it down, my friends, if Mayor Giuliani or Secretary Rice were somehow able to secure the nomination ... I, Mortimus Q. Squid, would the very next day be plying my considerable influence in favor of a third party choice ... Hillary or no Hillary.

Bill Frist - Senate Majority Leader. Were it not for his lofty position in Beltway circles, Frist would have found his place with the dwarves in Tier 3. Has a compelling life story ... but why would Republicans wish to nominate someone who comes across as stiff and uncharismatic ... someone whose main claim to fame is as leader of the inept Republican majority in the Senate?  His one big asset, a close relationship with Christian conservatives, he squandered by breaking with President Bush and supporting federally funded infant stem cell research ... i.e., forcing pro-lifers to pay for "research" they find morally repugnant.

Newt Gingrich - Former Speaker of the House.  Included in Tier 2 only out of respect for his past accomplishments and stature among the Republican faithful. No chance of competing seriously for the nomination ... damaged goods ... highly unpopular among the electorate at large. Plus (while I realize not everyone can be blessed with a distinguished, euphonic name such as my own) the name Gingrich calls to mind stolen Christmases and other Seuss-esque calamities.

Jeb Bush - Florida governor.  The President's brother is indeed presidential material in his own right. However, Americans would surely balk at the thought of three Bushes out of the last four presidents. Knowing this, Jeb almost certainly will not run, and if he did, Republicans would reluctantly pass him by.

Posted by eyecorn

Mr. Squid:
You've got us sitting on the edge of our chair. Who is left that could possibly win the Republican nomination? Hmmm, you have me second thinking the Condi sticker we have on our vans. You left Ahhh-nold off the list? Surely he is not one of the top 2! Looking forward to see who your top 2 predictions are. p.s. I'm trying to get dh to blog on politics...glad to see you in the blog community.
Michelle