Yes, my good friends, there are but two candidates that have a possibility of winning the Republican nomination.

Mortimus Squid's Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #5:

The 2008 Republican nominee for president will be either Senator John McCain from Arizona or Senator George Allen from Virginia.

John McCain - Arizona Senator. 

Many believe McCain is too unpopular with Republican conservatives to win the nomination. Indeed, McCain has over the years seemed to go out of his way to alienate the Republican base, and there are many who have sworn never to vote for him. 

However, I believe it is possible that McCain may cobble together enough votes to win from three groups: 

(1) Those who see the war on terror as dwarfing all other issues. McCain has been a stout advocate of the vigorous prosecution of that war. He has been a faithful supporter of the President on Iraq ... and some would say, better at explaining to the American people the stakes of the conflict than the President has been.

(2) Those who see beating Hillary as dwarfing all other issues.  With McCain they get a candidate with tremendous popular appeal among centrists and independents, without the sell-out of pro-life prinicple that would be required to embrace Condi or Rudy.

(3) Those who see keeping a pro-abortion candidate off the Republican ticket as dwarfing all other issues. If Giuliani continues to poll strongly as we enter the primary season ... or if Condi has thrown her hat in the ring and is surging ... there will be trememndous pressure on pro-lifers to quickly coalesce around a candidate who can keep the nomination from falling into pro-abortion hands.

McCain, for all that conservatives despise about him, has managed to keep intact a consistent pro-life position. Most pro-lifers doubt the depth of his conviction on the issue, but there is no doubt he has been a reliable pro-life vote over the years.

Senator McCain will be, to borrow a biblical phrase, "well-stricken in years" by the time the 2008 election rolls around. He'll turn 72 years old in August 2008 ... which would make him the oldest first term president ever.

This could well be a disadvantage, but in my humble opinion, McCain could turn it into a positive by pledging to be a one-term president ... a courageous reformer unfettered by polls, political calculations, and the need to seek reelection.

George Allen - Virginia Senator and former Virginia Governor

Senator Allen is currently mired in single digits in polls of Republican voters ... but that will not stand for long.

Allen is uniquely positioned in the race ... assuming he runs, which is almost certain ... and at this point rates as the Squid pick for the nomination.

He is viewed by some as a Reagan-esque figure ... tall and athletic, with a down home charm and ability to connect with the average voter. Cowboy boots, smokeless tobacco, and a father who was a legendary NFL coach enhance the down to earth, manly appeal.

Allen is very well-liked by conservatives, and his success will depend on getting himself positioned early as the conservative alternative to Giuliani and McCain ... and Rice if she runs.

His cause will be helped if at least two of that trifecta run ... since they will split the moderate and establishment Republican vote.

His potential rivals on the right ... such as Santorum or Brownback ... are perhaps too conservative and too closely identified with the Christian right. Republicans and Christian conservatives have found mutual electoral success in settling on (as in the case of George W. Bush) candidates who are not members of the Christian right, but allies of the Christian right.

Allen fits that bill perfectly ... a definite ally of Christian conservatives on most issues, but not so closely identified that secular-minded moderates are frightened away.

If the contest should boil down to McCain vs. Allen, Allen would assuredly be the conservatives' darling. This despite the ironic fact that McCain has maintained a more consistent pro-life position than has Allen ... who a decade ago suggested that perhaps abortion should not be illegal in the very early stages of pregnancy, prior to brain wave activity on the part of the infant.

Allen will have to clarify this position ... and I suspect he will abandon it. His pro-life credentials in the Senate have been sterling, and no one really doubts that he would be more likely to appoint true-blue, anti-Roe conservatives to the courts than would McCain.

Yes, I believe Allen will emerge as the mainstream conservative alternative in the primaries ... and since conservative voters tend to dominate the primaries, he stands an excellent chance of carrying the Republican banner in 2008.

Allen is admittedly a bit untested in the bright glare of the national spotlight. He could yet prove to be not ready for prime time. If he stumbles, the path will be clear for McCain.