Herein are inscribed the astute reflections and astonishingly accurate predictions of that distinguished political observer, Mortimus Q. Squid, Esquire. http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/ en-us Homeschool Blogger Mon, 15 May 2006 13:07:00 -0500 Mon, 15 May 2006 13:07:00 -0500   President Bush is planning a 7:00 p.m. address to the nation tonight on the subject of .... illegal immigration.   Surely my last post laying out the political dangers for Republicans on the border security issue was not the primary reason for the President's decision to address the nation.   On the other hand ... frankly, my friends ... I suppose it is quite possible that my post was indeed the instigating factor behind the President's speech.   In fact, if someone were to conclude that such a link between my post and the President's speech is highly likely ... I would be hard-pressed to argue they were wrong.   At any rate ... expect the President to make some overtures toward conservatives ... perhaps announcing an expanded National Guard presence on the border.   It is possible that the President has had the political equivalent of a deathbed conversion ... and will lay out a strong plan of border security, and will back off the amnesty notion until the border is secured.   More likely, any new border security measures will be half-hearted ... e.g., the number of new National Guard troops on the border is minimal, and they are only allowed to assist as file clerks and dishwashers.   If so, the speech could do more harm than good.   Oh, and if the President is wise, there are a couple of his pet phrases he will leave out of this speech altogether:   "... to do the jobs Americans won't do"  (Makes American workers sound lazy.)   "we are a nation of immigrants"  (Makes no distinction between legal and illegal immigration.)   I will close with the same phrase I used to close my earlier, now famous, post ... the post that by the reckoning of many observers provided the impetus for tonight's speech:   This is still a volatile situation.   http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/135108/ Mon, 15 May 2006 13:07:00 -0500 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/135108/   Can it be that I have not posted since February?   The days have passed quickly ... though I am sure for my loyal readers it has seemed a near eternity.   To be left adrift in the sea of vapid words spewed by the thousands of second-rate commentators infesting the political scene ... it must have been a painful experience for you, my dear reader.   Two observations:   Observation #1:  The Supreme Court   Regarding my most recent Astonishingly Accurate Prediction ... Washington rumors point ever more strongly to the impending resignation of Justice Stevens from the Supreme Court at the end of the current term (next month).    For instance, a ConfimThem.com commenter who calls himself "Insider," and who has provided helpful information in the past, indicates that his sources consider it all but a done deal.    Interestingly enough, he notes that Justice Souter is also looking to retire soon ... and probably would himself retire at the end of this term were not Stevens retiring.    All this of course is rapturous news for conservatives if true.   It also (though this is by no means my motive in alluding to it) attests to the accuracy of what your humble correspondent promised you over two months ago in Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6.     Observation #2:  The November Elections   Anxious political pros are no doubt refreshing this page several times a day waiting for the Squid take on the November congressional elections.   I am not in a position to make a solid prediction at this point because of the volatility of the illegal immigration issue.    The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Republicans will be smitten with disaster this fall ... with the possibility that the Democrats will gain control of the House and/or Senate.    I am by no means certain this is correct. In fact a Republican gain in the Senate is not improbable.   But the wild card is the illegal immigration issue. Washington politicians are just now waking up to the depth of feeling on this issue, particularly in the Republican base.    If Republicans ignore the base ... and continue down the road toward the Bush/McCain/Kennedy "guest worker" abomination, which essentially constitutes amnesty for illegals while giving an empty nod toward border security ... they may indeed have a date with disaster this November.   Friends, it is difficult to overstate how passionately many conservatives feel on this issue.  If you doubt this, I suggest you spend time on conservative forums on the Web or tune in to conservative talk radio ... especially local shows where the conversation is less filtered.   For many grass roots conservatives this is not just an "issue" to be debated ... but a threat to the future of America as we know it.   Seeing the illegals take to the streets in third-world style demonstrations ... brandishing flags of Mexico and other Latino nations ... only strengthens the perception that the American culture is in jeopardy from the invasion of millions of lawbreakers who have no real desire to assimilate.   This is not to mention the threat to national security of having unsecured borders in a time of war.   Being labeled bigots or xenophobes only increases the anger of grass roots conservatives ... who are used to such epithets being spewed by Democrats ... but not used to being labeled such by the out-of-touch elites in their own party.   I assure you, my friends, this tide of anger is well capable of toppling the Republican majority if it continues to be ignored inside the Beltway.   Fortunately, the past few weeks have seen a measure of awakening among Washington Republicans ... but this remains a volatile situation.         http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/121948/ Fri, 21 Apr 2006 13:12:00 -0500 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/121948/   Greetings, dear friends.   You might like to peruse the following column by well-connected conservative, Paul Weyrich:   Rumors of a Third Nominee to the Supreme Court   Weyrich notes a "rumor which absolutely has swept the Nation’s Capitol since the swearing-in of Justice Samuel J. Alito, Jr."    He continues:   That rumor is that President George W. Bush will have another vacancy on the Supreme Court when the term ends this coming June.One Senator claims he has specific knowledge that the vacancy is coming. The speculation revolves around 85-year-old Associate Justice John Paul Stevens.   Now I ask, dear readers, what could have transpired to cause such a rumor to sweep the Capitol?   Since vanity and self-congratulations are not in my nature, I hesitate to think that my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6 could have been the source of this Beltway buzz.   Yet it is difficult to come to any other conclusion.   As for the Senator who claims "specific knowledge that the vacancy is coming" ... please be assured I am not upset that he fails to attribute this information to me.   It merely reaffirms what is indeed no secret ... that Senators and their staffs are frequent visitors to this space.    Knowing that distinguished elected officials speak and act in reliance on information offered here is far from being a source of pride to me.   Rather, it contributes to a sense of profound humility.     http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/87243/ Mon, 20 Feb 2006 10:59:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/87243/   Well, loyal readers, here is my latest prediction ... one that will send White House and Capitol Hill aides scurrying to their keyboards and cell phones ...   Mortimus Squid's Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #6: There will be another Supreme Court vacancy this year ... and the resignation will be from the Court's liberal wing ... most likely Stevens or Souter.  Yes, my friends, and the resulting confirmation hearings will be high drama as this could be the pick that radically alters the balance on the Court. I am not unaware that top staff in the White House regularly monitor this space ... and even now they are likely re-studying their short list of nominees in light of my prediction. That short list no doubt includes the following names (in approximate order of likelihood): Karen Williams Miguel Estrada Maureen Mahoney Michael McConnell Consuelo Callahan Diane Sykes   http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/78025/ Fri, 3 Feb 2006 10:52:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/78025/       My friends, the last thing I would ever desire to do is to engage in unseemly gloating when my analysis proves to be fully, precisely, and uncannily accurate.   But as much as humility bids me remain silent, in the interest of journalistic integrity I feel compelled to remind the reading audience of my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #4:   Samuel Alito will be confirmed by the Senate.  He will receive less than 60 votes, but there will be no Democrat filibuster.   I hesitate to point out (lest it somehow bring unwanted credit to your humble correspondent) that there are three predictions rolled into this single statement ...   (1) Samuel Alito will be confirmed. (2) He will receive less than 60 votes. (3) There will be no Democrat filibuster.   ... and that all three of these predictions were fulfilled precisely.   And when one recalls that this prediction was made ... not on the eve of the vote ... not after the Committee hearings ... but on the 4th of December ...    Well, dear friends, my duty as a journalist notwithstanding, I must desist from this line of thought lest I seem to be tooting my own horn.   But I shall return shortly with another prediction ... this one perhaps more breathtaking in its audacity than any of those preceding it.           http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/77045/ Wed, 1 Feb 2006 17:05:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/77045/   There is weeping and gnashing of teeth in Democrat land tonight.   High hopes of derailing the nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court have evaporated over three days of questioning.   Alito's quiet, monotone answers have exuded competence and decency.   There was no "gotcha" moment.    The Democrat inquisitors were unable to recreate the drama of the Bork or Thomas hearings. Instead, they were reduced to berating Judge Alito over historical trivia and shamelessly insinuating that he is a bigot at heart.   And they made Mrs. Alito cry.   Soccer moms across the nation, who could care less about Concerned Alumni of Princeton, the unitary executive, or recusal in the Vangard case, woke up to see Mrs. Alito's tearful face on the front page of this morning's USA Today.    The blandness and faux politeness with which Democrats questioned Alito today told the story ... they finally realized they were in process of driving off a political cliff.   It's over.   There will be no filibuster. There will be no Bork II.   Justice Alito can order his robe.          http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/67346/ Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:01:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/67346/   The Christmas (er ... Holiday/Kwanzaa/Winter Solstice/Multi-Religious-Days-of-Significance) season is not a particularly dynamic time for political developments.   There will be little happening in the Alito nomination until the first of the year ... then all hell (er ... insert your religion's place, state or idea of retributive justice or self-questioning reflection) will break loose.   The remembrance that I have already predicted the good judge's confirmation should add a measure of peace to your Holiday/Kwanzaa/Winter Solstice/Multi-Religious-Days-of-Significance season.   In presidential politics, I notice that Mitt Romney has declined to stand for reelection as Massachusetts governor ... a further indication that he will be a candidate for the 2008 Republican nomination.   Romney is perhaps the one candidate who has the capacity to disrupt the carefully crafted predictions laid out in my now famous four-post series on the Republican nomination.   To do so, and become a Tier 1 candidate, he must tack hard right on the social issues and adopt the "I-know-I-looked-like-a-squishy-moderate-but-I-was-trying-to-govern-a-state-that-made-the-old-Soviet-Union-look-conservative" defense.   Romney is an impressive candidate and delivered one of the very best speeches at the 2004 Republican Convention.   My choice for the 2008 nomination, Virginia's George Allen, is profiled in this Newsweek article, which examines the intriguing possibility of an all-Virginia election in November 2008.   Please, my friends, attend to your shopping and family obligations with a mind at ease ... knowing that if there are any political developments worth noting over the holidays, I will surely note them.   In the meantime, I trust that Santa Claus (or your chosen semi-mythical, benevolent holiday gift-bearing icon) will deposit the finest presents around your tree (or bush, pole, zuggernaut, African ritual heap, Mother Gaia likeness, or other religious, secular, or philosophical vertical item).   Oh, and one more thing....   May the Lord Jesus Christ ... the only begotten Son of the one true God ... the one Mediator between God and man ... the only hope for a fallen world ... bless you richly as we celebrate His incarnation as the virgin-born Savior.           http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/58333/ Tue, 20 Dec 2005 12:10:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/58333/   One of the joys of being an influential commentator is receiving emails from appreciative readers.   Such as this one: So you would find it "refreshing" to be wrong for a change, would you? Yeah right, you pompous, bloviating windbag.  What about your Astonishingly Stupid Prediction #2 that Karen Williams would be the Supreme Court nominee? I don't see anyone named Williams preparing for confirmation hearings, do you? Huh?   I must confess that my Williams pick was less correct than I had envisioned.   But that's not to say it was wrong.   I wonder if my dear readers have considered the possibility that Karen Williams was indeed the President's original choice ... and that my Astonishingly Accurate Prediction #2 was the very factor that caused the President to switch to someone else?   Given the President's love of surprise choices, that scenario grows more plausible the more one considers it.   Then, too, consider that Williams may yet be picked by the President to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg, if she retires in the next year or two.   If a man predicts that a particular event is going to occur, is his prediction incorrect just because it occurs tomorrow instead of today?   But while I disagree with the correspondent's contention that the Williams pick was a failure on my part ... I do appreciate the congenial spirit in which he writes.   (Although I am still trying to discern whether "pompous, bloviating windbag" was intended as a compliment, or whether it was meant to bear a slightly negative connotation.) http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/55156/ Tue, 13 Dec 2005 14:27:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/55156/   I have sometimes been accused of gloating over those occasions when my commentary proves correct, while ignoring the occasions when it does not.   Nothing, my friends, could be further from the truth.   On the contrary, it is tiresome (and decidedly against the grain of a naturally humble and retiring personality) to find myself continually rehashing a string of successes.   I assure you, I would regard a failed prediction or off-target observation as a refreshing break from the monotony.   Nonetheless, I am forced to report to you today that my latest analysis on the 2008 Republican Nomination has already begun to pile up testimonials to its prescient accuracy.   For instance, in an article almost certainly influenced by my analysis of why Mayor Giuliani cannot win the nomination, Newsday is now reporting:   Giuliani in '08 might be an uphill battle against McCain Wittmann is just one of many McCainiacs questioning the viability of a Giuliani candidacy.... They argue that the former mayor's liberal positions on abortion (he favors abortion rights), guns (he's for strict controls) and gay rights (he drew heat from conservatives for once living with a gay couple and implemented New York's landmark domestic partnership law) put him far to the left of McCain and most GOP primary voters."In my humble opinion, Rudy wouldn't get out of the gate," said longtime McCain strategist John Dennehy. [Click link above for the full article.]   Also, Patrick Hynes has this article up at RealClearPolitics.com:   Beltway Conservatives Take Second Look at McCain Not only is John McCain the clear frontrunner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, but many beltway conservatives are beginning to accept the inevitability of a McCain-run party. According to several sources in Washington, DC – all of whom have, at times said things drastically critical of the Arizona Senator in my presence – McCain is the GOP’s only hope in the post-Bush era. [Click link above for the full article.]   I would not be so vain as to presume that the classic four-post series presented here over the weekend was the catalyst that has caused Republicans to "take a second look" at McCain.   Nor would I be so naive as to presume it was not.     http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/55124/ Mon, 12 Dec 2005 12:21:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/55124/   My loyal readers, the four posts below form a veritable Squid's Viewers Guide to the 2008 Republican Nomination.   It is questionable whether such a quantity and quality of information has ever been contained in a four-post stretch in the history of political blogging.   To coin a phrase (displaying once again the trademark Squid sense of humor) ... it is mind bloggling.   These posts will flow most cogently if you begin at the bottom and work your way up ... but a top down perusal is permitted as well.   If you encounter sluggish system performance, do not be alarmed.    All of official Washington, as well as political operatives across the country, will no doubt be attempting to access this site over the next few days. http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/54411/ Sat, 10 Dec 2005 06:50:00 -0600 http://www.homeschoolblogger.com/msquid/54411/